SI273: Unraveling the Mystery of Complex Adaptive Systems ft. Richard Brennan
How do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?03:08 - Industry performance update08:21 - Q1, Adam: In terms of loose pants, how loose is too loose?13:36 - Trading with different models15:42 - Adam Q2: What is a reasonable sample size in real trade observations, to compare against backtest statistics?18:23 - A deep dive into complex adaptive systems (CAS)20:29 - The 5 properties of CAS25:24 - Examples of non-linearty in financial markets30:50 - Emerging properties in financial markets33:59 - Self organization36:33 - Adaption and evolution40:10 - Feedback loops43:11 - What does CAS and trend following have in common?49:38 - The limitations of traditional statistics01:01:14 - Summing it all up01:04:48 - What's next?Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights...