GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Dario on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?12:27 - Where are we now?17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?26:37 - A sticky inflation28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?32:52 - A concern for real-estate?38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?46:21 - Are central bankers bluffing?51:15 - Will there be limits