Has RFK Jr.'s Moment Passed?

For much of the 2024 presidential election, it felt like there were pretty ideal conditions for a third-party candidate. Republicans and Democrats had both lined up behind broadly unpopular — and familiar — candidates. In the spring, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was polling at 10 percent in The New York Times/Siena College survey of battleground states, and sustained interest in his candidacy was enough to raise alarm among his major-party rivals. As that alarm grew, the Run-Up team traveled to Royal Oak, Mich., for a Kennedy campaign event to ask people how they were thinking about a third-party vote when the stakes for that decision were so high. Since that visit, a lot has changed in the race. There’s a new name on top of the Democratic ticket. And a lot has changed in Mr. Kennedy’s campaign, too. But third-party interest among voters who are sick of the system or wary of both parties remains. On today’s show: what made RFK Jr. such a threatening spoiler — and how the RFK-curious in a crucial state are thinking about the race now.