Whistling Past the Stagflation Graveyard – Ep. 451

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Market Down Before the Bell
A late-day rally wasn't enough to bring the U.S. stock market indexes into the black on the day.  In fact, this is the first down week that the U.S. stock market has had in 2019. Something tells me it's certainly not going to be the last. The market was down from the bell this morning. Even before the bell, if you look at the futures, even before we got the jobs number - the February jobs report (which I will get into a little later in this podcast) the markets were already down.  The Dow Futures, I think were off about 125, 135, something like that. Normally, the markets are not making a big move in either direction before the jobs report comes out, because people don't know what the number is going to be, and generally it's a market-moving number, so the markets are typically pretty flat before we get the number.

Trade Deal Up in the Air
This time, the markets were down.  Based on rumors that the trade deal with China may be delayed.  People were talking about this Mar-a-Lago Summit that was going to take place later in the month, and now I was reading about how there may not be a deal in time, and the Chinese may not want to go to Mar-a-Lago, and so the whole thing is up in the air. So people were getting a little nervous about the trade deal. So that's why the markets were already selling off, plus, I think the Chinese markets had been weaker overnight. Trump or someone else Tweeted out that Trump had said, as soon as we signed the trade deal, the markets are really going to spike. Apparently, nobody has explained to Donald Trump how the stock market works. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Maybe the President has more experience in the real estate market, not understanding how the stock market generally anticipates news, and sells off on the realization of that news.