EA - The US expands restrictions on AI exports to China. What are the x-risk effects? by Stephen Clare

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The US expands restrictions on AI exports to China. What are the x-risk effects?, published by Stephen Clare on October 14, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Late last week, the Biden administration announced a new set of regulations that make it illegal for US companies to export a range of AI-related products and services to China (Financial Times coverage here (paywalled 👀); Reuters here). By all accounts this new export controls policy is a big deal for US-China competition and Chinese AI progress. Its wide-reaching effects touch on a number of issues important to effective altruists, AI safety strategists, and folks interested in reducing global catastrophic risks. This is a quickly-written post in which I summarize my understanding of the new regulations and their probable effects, then list some questions the announcement prompted regarding the effect on various global catastrophic risks. The new export controls policy If you pick a random article commenting on the new export controls policy, you’ll probably see some dramatic language. Reuters describes the new rules as an attempt to “hobble” China’s chip industry. CSIS’s Greg Allen writes that they seek to “[choke] off China’s access to the future of AI”. ChinaTalk’s Jordan Schneider thinks they “will reshape the global semiconductor industry and the future of the US-China relationship”. The export controls seek to slow or stop Chinese companies from developing cutting-edge AI capabilities. They do this by making it illegal for US companies, US citizens, and foreign companies that use US products to sell AI-related hardware, software, and services to Chinese entities. This kind of policy is not new in itself. For years, the US has prohibited companies from selling AI tech to China for military use. However, the new regulations are notable for being much broader than previous restrictions and broad-based, no longer restricted to military uses in particular. Allen writes that the regulations target four “chokepoints” in the AI development supply chain. Restrictions have been placed on the export of high-end computer chips, chip design software, chip manufacturing equipment, and manufacturing equipment components. I am going to summarize Allen’s explanations very briefly. If this is relevant to your work I strongly recommend you go read his article, which is packed with interesting and important details. Schneider also has a digestible tweet thread explanation you can read here. 1. The best computer chips The new policies will functionally end the sale of the “best” computer chips, i.e. any chip above a certain performance threshold, to China. The US had already blocked the sale of such chips to China’s military. However, Allen writes that this policy was ineffective due to military-civil fusion in China; the boundary between military and non-military organizations in China is purposefully and officially blurry. Unable to distinguish military from non-military uses, the US government has decided to just block the sale of high-end chips to China entirely. 2. The software used to design chips Advanced chips are so complex that specialized software is required to design them. The new regulations also ban companies from providing this software to Chinese companies. This will make it harder for Chinese companies to design new chips that can compete with the high-end chips produced by, e.g., Nvidia and AMC, to which they have just lost access. 3. The equipment used to make semiconductors Allen writes that Chinese companies could yet circumvent chokepoints (1) and (2) by designing and manufacturing chips using older programs and equipment. But chokepoint (3) seeks to stop this by banning the sale of chip manufacturing equipment that exceeds a certain performance threshold. US citizens are also no longer allowed to ...