EA - The History, Epistemology and Strategy of Technological Restraint, and lessons for AI (short essay) by MMMaas

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The History, Epistemology and Strategy of Technological Restraint, and lessons for AI (short essay), published by MMMaas on August 10, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. In short: some expect that we could not meaningfully slow or halt the development of A(G)I even if we expect extreme risks. Yet there is a surprisingly diverse historical track record of technological delay and restraint, even for strategically promising technologies that were seen as 'obvious' and near-inevitable in their time. Epistemic hurdles around studying 'undeployed' technologies make it likely that we underestimate the frequency of restraint decisions, or misinterpret their causes. From an outside view, this should lead us to be slightly more optimistic about the viability of restraint for future technologies. This analysis does not show that restraint for AGI is currently desirable; that it would be easy; that it would be a wise strategy (given its consequences); or that it is an optimal or competitive approach relative to other available AI governance strategies. However, possible conditions for- or pathways towards restraint should be explored in greater detail, as part of a comprehensive toolset that offers strategic clarity regarding all options on the table. Disclaimers: Background: this short essay was published on the legal academic forum Verfassungsblog, as part of a symposium debate sequence on 'Longtermism and the Law' (see summary twitter thread here). As such it approaches the topic from the perspective of 'legal longtermism', but many points apply to longtermist (or AI risk/governance) debates generally. This post has been lightly edited. Epistemic status: this is an initial primer on an in-progress research project, and many of the case studies will need further analysis; My take: it is not yet my view that restraint is warranted as a strategy--nor that it currently compares well to other work. However, I do expect it should be explored amongst other avenues; Feedback & future work: I will cover this in greater detail, including a discussion of advantages and risks of pursuing restraint, in an upcoming profile of the 'Containing' approach, as part of my 'Strategic Perspectives on Long-term AI Governance' sequence. I welcome feedback. Abstract: If the development of certain technologies, such as advanced, unaligned A(G)I, would be as dangerous as some have suggested, a longtermist (legal) perspective might advocate a strategy of technological delay—or even restraint—to avoid a default outcome of catastrophe. To many, restraint–a decision to withhold indefinitely from the development, or at least deployment, of the technology–might look implausible. However, history offers a surprising array of cases where strategically promising technologies were delayed, abandoned, or left unbuilt (see in-progress list), even though many at the time perceived their development as inevitable. They range from radiological- and weather weapons to atomic planes, from dozens of voluntarily cancelled state nuclear weapons programs, to a Soviet internet, and many more. It is easy to miss these cases, or to misinterpret their underlying causes, in ways that lead us to be too pessimistic about future prospects for restraint. That does not mean that restraint for future technologies like advanced AI will be easy, or a wise strategy. Yet investigating when and why restraint might be needed, where it is viable, and how legal interventions could contribute to achieving and maintaining it, should be a key pillar within a long-termist legal research portfolio. The question of restraint around AI development In a famous 2000 essay, entitled ‘Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us’, computer scientist Bill Joy grimly reflected on the potential range of new technological threats that could await us in the 21st centu...