EA - How long till Brussels?: A light investigation into the Brussels Gap by Yadav

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How long till Brussels?: A light investigation into the Brussels Gap, published by Yadav on December 26, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum.This is written quickly; I'm mostly looking to gauge whether this topic is important at all. As such, I'd love to hear your thoughts!IntroductionThis post quickly looks at the 'Brussels Gap', i.e. the time elapsed between enacting a Regulation within the EU and its emulation in other parts of the world (i.e. the Brussels Effect).The 'Brussels Gap' could be a relatively important phenomenon that is worth examining, given the development of a new Regulation on Artificial Intelligence proposed by the EU. If the Regulation comes to fruition (and it seems likely that it will), then having a better picture of the timescales at which the Brussels Effect operates seems crucial.In this post, I outline a primer on the Brussels Effect and the relationship it could play with AI development. Then I list out different case studies of the Brussels Effect and look at the time differences between the enactment of a Regulation within the EU and its replication in other countries outside Europe.Depending on your timelines for the development of Transformative AI, understanding the 'Brussels Gap' could be directly useful for weighing up the importance of the Brussels Effect.If you're already up to speed with Brussels Effect, I'd suggest skipping to the section titled "The 'Brussels Gap'".Background Information:What is the Brussels Effect?The "Brussels Effect" refers to the EU's unilateral ability to regulate the global marketplace. This ability allows legislation and policy adopted by the EU to diffuse to other jurisdictions.The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is a salient example of this. The Regulation was passed by the European Parliament and the Council of the EU in 2016 and came into effect on the 25th of May, 2018.Introducing the GDPR led to a ripple effect; India, Japan, Brazil and elsewhere began emulating the Regulation.Types of Brussels EffectDe Facto BE: This is where conduct under a particular area is done under the unilateral EU rules, even when other states continue to maintain their own rules. Anu Bradford describes this as the 'convergence' of a company's global production and conducts towards EU regulations.De Jure BE: Where states adopt EU regulations into their own legal body.Why does the Brussels Effect happen?Why do other countries choose to model after the EU? The two most substantial answers to this are (see Anu Bradford's work for more):1. Institutional CompetenceThe EU's architecture is incredibly complex. Here is an outline of how each body interacts with one another.This complicated architecture has also had a 5.2% growth rate in all its bodies combined, with most of the staff being highly educated (usually possessing a master's degree).Both of these factors resulted in a signal of competence to other countries in the world, which results in a higher degree of trust in the EU's decisions and policies.2. Economic trade-offsThe EU consists of 27 Member States, creating strong economic incentives for companies to operate within the EU so they can trade within these states. Those who want to participate in this internal market must comply with the Union's Regulations. Essentially, no one gets to keep their cake and eat it too. If you're going to get hold of the gains of trading within the EU, you'll have to obey the rules of the EU.In creating an EU-compliant product, companies have a choice: do they create separate products for different jurisdictions, or do they standardise their products across the world? The latter is usually more economically feasible, which unlocks the ability for the rules of the EU to spread.What does the Brussels Effect have to do with AI?The EU is likely to intro...