EA - Flooding is not a promising cause area - shallow investigation by Oscar Delaney

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Flooding is not a promising cause area - shallow investigation, published by Oscar Delaney on December 21, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum.SummaryFloods are important - they on average kill 5,000 people and cause $35B of damage each year.Compared to other problems in global health, however, floods are relatively minor.Flood prevention - and especially response - are less neglected than other global health problem areas.This may be because floods harm rich people too, who are politically empowered and cause governments to invest in mitigation.I estimate that to beat GiveWell’s top charities, we would need to prevent all flood damage using $400M per year.This seems very difficult.I investigate several interventions in more detail, which show some promise but are unlikely to be competitive with GiveWell’s top charities.This report was produced with roughly 50 hours of research and writing, as part of the Cause Innovation Bootcamp fellowship program.IntroductionFloods are defined as land that is normally dry being submerged underwater. There are several quite distinct types of floods, the most important being those caused by:[1]Rain: intense rainfall in a localised area can exceed the capacity of the ground to absorb water, and lead to a buildup of water in low-lying areas.Rivers: distributed rainfall anywhere in a river’s catchment area, rapid snow-melt, or the collapse or quick release of dam water, can all cause a river to overflow its banks.Storm surges: intense winds can blow ocean water onto land, and the lower air pressure of large storms causes the local sea level to rise by up to about 1m. Particularly if combined with a high tide this can inundate coastal areas.ImportanceFloods are a big deal. Of natural disasters occurring between 1998 and 2017, a UN report estimated that 43% of disasters were floods (next most common: storm), floods accounted for 45% of disaster-impacted people, at 2 billion (next highest: drought), 11% of deaths (earthquakes caused 56%), and 23% of the economic damage (storms were 46%).[2]While the toll of floods is generally well recorded in terms of deaths and financial cost, at least for larger disasters, data is scarcer and less systematic for other harms.Floods can have many negative impacts, ranging from direct to indirect and immediate to long-term:[3]Deaths: the majority of flood deaths are drownings, with other causes including injuries from falling objects or debris in fast-moving water, and electrocution from fallen powerlines.[4] Floods caused an average of 5,000 deaths per year in 2001-2020, with the bulk of the deaths caused by many smaller events: the deadliest 104 floods accounted for half the deaths in this period.[5]Injuries: as well as injuries during the flood, reconstruction and clean-up causes various injuries including sprains and strains, falling off roofs or ladders, and lacerations from sharp debris.[6] Floods caused an average of 15,000 injuries per year in 2001-2020, though injuries are probably significantly underreported.[7]Water-borne diseases: particularly if sewage systems have been compromised, contact with floodwater can cause a variety of diseases notably diarrhoea, cholera and leptospirosis.Mosquito-borne diseases: the abundance of stagnant water as floodwaters recede may cause a surge in mosquito populations and an associated spike in malaria, dengue and other vector-borne diseases.[8]Malnutrition: lost crops and reduced purchasing power can lead to impaired nutrition in the years following a major flood event in a poor region. One study found wasting to be more than twice as common in children who were flooded twice in the last three years than in control households.[9]Mental health: many studies have found increased incidences of PTSD, anxiety and depression in individuals ...