EA - Don’t give well, give WELLBYs: HLI’s 2022 charity recommendation by MichaelPlant

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Don’t give well, give WELLBYs: HLI’s 2022 charity recommendation, published by MichaelPlant on November 24, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum.This post sets out the Happier Lives Institute’s charity recommendation for 2022, how we got here, and what’s next. We provide a summary first, followed by a more detailed version.SummaryHLI’s charity recommendation for 2022 is StrongMinds, a non-profit that provides group psychotherapy for women in Uganda and Zambia who are struggling with depression.We compared StrongMinds to three interventions that have been recommended by GiveWell as being amongst the most cost-effective in the world: cash transfers, deworming pills, and anti-malarial bednets. We find that StrongMinds is more cost-effective (in almost all cases).HLI is pioneering a new and improved approach to evaluating charities. We focus directly on what really matters, how much they improve people’s happiness, rather than on health or wealth. We measure effectiveness in WELLBYs (wellbeing-adjusted life years).We estimate that StrongMinds is ~10x more cost-effective than GiveDirectly, which provides cash transfers. StrongMinds’ 8-10 week programme of group interpersonal therapy has a slightly larger effect than a $1,000 cash transfer but costs only $170 per person to deliver.For deworming, our forthcoming analysis finds it has a small but statistically non-significant effect on happiness. Even if we assume this effect is true, deworming is still half as cost-effective as StrongMinds. We expect to publish our full report in the coming days (sadly, it’s been delayed due to a bereavement for one of the authors).In our new report, The Elephant in the Bednet, we show that the relative value of life-extending and life-improving interventions depends very heavily on the philosophical assumptions you make. This issue is usually glossed over and there is no simple answer.We conclude that the Against Malaria Foundation is less cost-effective than StrongMinds under almost all assumptions. We expect this conclusion will similarly apply to the other life-extending charities recommended by GiveWell.HLI’s original mission, when we started three years ago, was to take what appeared to be the world’s top charities - the ones GiveWell recommended - reevaluate them in terms of subjective wellbeing, and then try to find something better. We believe we’ve now accomplished that mission: treating depression at scale allows you to do even more good with your money.We’re now moving to ‘Phase 2’, analysing a wider range of interventions and charities in WELLBYs to find even better opportunities for donors.StrongMinds aims to raise $20 million over the next two years and there’s over $800,000 of matching funds available for StrongMinds this giving season.Why does HLI exist?The Happier Lives Institute advises donors how to maximise the impact of their donations. Our distinctive approach is to focus directly on what really matters to people, improving their subjective wellbeing, how they feel during and about their lives. The idea that we should take happiness seriously is simple:Happiness matters. Although it’s common to think about impact in terms of health and wealth, those are just a means, not an end in themselves. What’s really important is that people enjoy their lives and are free from suffering.We can measure happiness by asking people how they feel. Lots of research has shown that subjective wellbeing surveys are scientifically valid (e.g. OECD, 2013; Kaiser & Oswald, 2022). A typical question is, “Overall, how satisfied are you with your life, nowadays?” (0 - not at all satisfied, 10 - completely satisfied).Our expectations about happiness are often wrong. When we try to guess what life would be like, for others or our future selves, we suffer from biases. When we put...