Niall Ferguson on Catastrophe

We talk to the historian Niall Ferguson about the politics of catastrophe, from pandemics and famines to world wars and climate change. Have we been worrying about the right things? Why have some countries done so much better than others with Covid? And what can history teach us about the worst that can happen? Plus, how likely is it that a cold war between the US and China turns hot? Talking Points:Niall argues that COVID is more like the Asian flu in ‘57/’58 than the 1918/1919 Spanish flu.However the economic response is unprecedented; the Internet made lockdowns at this scale and duration possible.Lockdowns were a near panic response that were necessitated by initial political failures in the West.When we’re trying to assess the political impact of a disaster, the body count is not the most important thing.A disaster can kill a lot of people and be virtually forgotten if it doesn’t have cascading consequences.We will probably remember the experience of lockdown more than the mortality rates.What did we get wrong about the COVID response?Controlling travel early on made a difference, and most Western states did not do that.The network structure of a polity is the most important thing in a pandemic, especially in an era of globalized travel.The distinction between natural and manmade disasters is a false one.The scale of impact is a function of how we, collectively and our leaders, individually make decisions.Humans do not seem to be very good at thinking pragmatically about risks; we tend to ignore them in practice while simultaneously constructing apocalyptic fantasies. Mentioned in this Episode:Niall’s book, Doom: The Politics of CatastropheLarry Summers and David Cutler on the costs of COVIDGraham Allison, Destined for WarFurther Learning: More on Taiwan’s COVID responseWhy do so many people live near active volcanoes? ‘The Really Big One’ (the earthquake that will devastate the Pacific Northwest) The Talking Politics Guide to… Existential RiskAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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Coronavirus! Climate! Brexit! Trump! Politics has never been more unpredictable, more alarming or more interesting: Talking Politics is the podcast that tries to make sense of it all. Every week David Runciman and Helen Thompson talk to the most interesting people around about the ideas and events that shape our world: from history to economics, from philosophy to fiction. What does the future hold? Can democracy survive? How crazy will it get? This is the political conversation that matters.Talking Politics is brought to you in partnership with the London Review of Books, Europe's leading magazine of books and ideas.