Kontrarian Korner #43 - Chris MacIntosh

Last week I was able to get Chris MacIntosh on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. We talked about the different cycles that are all converging, the geopolitical situation in Europe, and opportunities in different commodities and South America. He’s very sharp on a bunch of different topics, from history to financial markets and everything in between. If you want to find his website or his Twitter, I have included links below. Chris’ TwitterCapitalist ExploitsPodcast Summary* The current geopolitical situation and the cyclical nature of history.* How different cycles are all lining up right now, from the debt cycle, the monetary cycle, the commodities cycle, and the 250 year revolutionary cycle.* The capital rotation on the horizon, and why gold is typically the first mover on that front.* How the economics in Europe are driving their decision making, why he thinks we will see capital flight out of Europe.* Capital controls, and how they are masked as regulatory controls in Europe. * Why he thinks we could be headed for stagflation and why he thinks this commodities cycle will be driven by supply constraints instead of booming demand.* Energy is typically the best performing asset in stagflationary cycles.* Why they are fairly heavy in the energy sector, which has some of the cheapest assets on the planet, particularly in the offshore oil services space. * How shipbuilders are another constraint worth watching.* The potential supply squeeze setting up in coal, and how coal has been starved of capital for years. * Why he is bullish on South America, and very bullish on Argentina in particular.* Avoiding bonds because of where we are in the cycle.* The formation of geopolitical blocks around the world.* Why Venezuela as the wild card in South America. * Trump’s negotiating style, and why Canada is in a weak position.* Book Recommendation: 180 Degrees: Unlearn The Lies You've Been Taught To Believe by Feargus O’Connor Greenwood.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe