Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Poker champion turned business  consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with  uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super  Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most  controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and  trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass  instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was  intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play  in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually  make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best  decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an  element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information  that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding  worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are  the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest  odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that  works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather  than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series  of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from  business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone  can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most  people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and  even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker  players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always  lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad  outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to  a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll  be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and  destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more  confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run. Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs. PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.