Big gamble or smart move? Powell hints at 50bp hike

Today's focus is on the major data that has reshaped expectations for central bank interest rates. Generally, we're observing two things: the activity data is holding up better than expected, and inflation is proving more persistent than hoped. As a consequence, markets are bracing for higher rates for a longer period. Let's start with the US. We have seen a string of positive surprises in recent macroeconomic data. The latest reports on GDP, retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation hav...