Kiril Sokoloff (13D Research) - An Insidious Environment
Kiril Sokoloff founded 13D Research in 1983 and is a leading global investment strategist who has presciently called a number of major paradigm shifts over the last 40 years. We discuss Kiril’s career, why the current investment backdrop is so challenging and how the geopolitical landscape is evolving.Show notes:[01:23] Kiril talks about the start of his career[04:18] Getting the big picture right[07:48] The impact of algorithmic trading and passive investing on price discovery [09:57] Timing is everything[10:48] Risk control and being willing to change your mind[12:39] The common traits of successful investors[14:44] Reading widely to connect the dots[15:41] Why the investment environment is so challenging[19:18] The lag effect giving the illusion that everything’s fine[21:14] The role gold plays in a portfolio[24:19] The cycle of wealth distribution[25:54] Cycles go from one extreme to the other[26:45] Focusing on cash flow and low free cash flow multiples[28:23] Supply and demand imbalances in the energy and mining industries[30:47] Resource nationalism[32:21] A changing market regime[33:35] Drivers of higher inflation[37:33] Geopolitics and the shift to a multipolar world[40:21] Investing in China[42:15] Accepting fate whilst being flexible and patient