“The case for contributing to the 2024 US election with your time & money” by alexlintz

Executive summary We believe contributions to the 2024 US election are worthy of serious consideration. In particular, we believe this election is much more tractable and important than conventional wisdom within the EA community suggests. Many of our team members were previously working in AI safety/governance and have temporarily switched to focusing primarily on the election. We think more EAs should consider doing the same. This election is much more tractable than most expect: US presidential elections are often decided by slim margins in a few swing states (537 votes in 2000, 77,744 in 2016, and 42,918 in 2020).  The best polling data we have as of August 2024 is that 2024's margins will be in a similar range, with Harris very slightly favored to lose.  Given how small margins of victory have been, many organizations have arguably been responsible for flipping past presidential elections (and [...] ---Outline:(00:06) Executive summary(03:25) Introduction(04:38) Influencing the US election is tractable(04:43) US presidential elections are often close(06:45) Having an impact on the election is relatively straightforward(07:58) There is still low-hanging fruit(11:15) Electoral politics has poor incentives and talent retention(13:16) The 2024 election is much more important than other elections(13:22) A second Trump term would likely be far more damaging for liberal democracy than the last(18:03) This is an especially critical period for AI(18:50) Trump is unusually bad at governing(19:59) How you can help(20:19) Urgency and irreversibility(21:23) Donate(23:46) Get involved(25:06) Appendix(25:09) The opportunity cost of a Trump presidency(26:44) The candidates on some EA cause areas(27:03) Artificial Intelligence(29:44) Pandemic response and biosecurity(31:39) Global health(33:04) Climate change(34:54) Nuclear Risk(36:40) Farm animal welfare(38:21) US-China and international relations(43:01) An incredibly rough model of the cost to flip the electionThe original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI. --- First published: August 21st, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QJfy2gBdZbw5cDXdh/the-case-for-contributing-to-the-2024-us-election-with-your --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.