“Scorable Functions: A Format for Algorithmic Forecasting” by Ozzie Gooen

You can think of a scorable function as a "box" that can produce large clusters of complex forecasts. Credit to Dall-E 3.Introduction. Imagine if a forecasting platform had estimates for things like: "For every date until 2100, what will be the probability of a global catastrophic biological event, given different levels of biosecurity investment and technological advancement?" "What will be the impact of various AI governance policies on the likelihood of developing safe and beneficial artificial general intelligence, and how will this affect key indicators of global well-being over the next century?" "How valuable is every single project funded by Open Philanthropy, according to a person with any set of demographic information, if they would spend 1000 hours reflecting on it?" These complex, multidimensional questions are useful for informing decision-making and resource allocation around effective altruism and existential risk mitigation. However, traditional judgemental forecasting methods often struggle [...] ---Outline:(02:23) From Forecast Bots to Scorable Functions(06:13) Potential Uses of Scorable Functions(08:23) How Scorable Function Forecasting Tournaments Could Work(10:04) Scorable Function Forecasting vs. Traditional Statistical Modeling(12:56) Examples of Specialized Scorable Function Platforms(13:59) Challenges for Forecasters(15:04) Challenges for Forecasting Platforms(18:05) Conclusion(18:28) Appendix: Key Terminology--- First published: May 21st, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZWQ5jbLxpd4JtQgu4/scorable-functions-a-format-for-algorithmic-forecasting --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.