“Robust longterm comparisons” by Toby_Ord

(Cross-posted from http://www.tobyord.com/writing/robust-longterm-comparisons ) The choice of discount rate is crucially important when comparing options that could affect our entire future. Except when it isn’t. Can we tease out a class of comparisons that everyone can agree on regardless of their views on discounting? Some of the actions we can take today may have longterm effects — permanent changes to humanity's longterm trajectory. For example, we may take risks that could lead to human extinction. Or we might irreversibly destroy parts of our environment, creating permanent reductions in the quality of life. Evaluating and comparing such effects is usually extremely sensitive to what economists call the pure rate of time preference, denoted ρ. This is a way of encapsulating how much less we should value a benefit simply because it occurs at a later time. There are other components of the overall discount rate that adjust for the fact [...] --- First published: May 15th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hh7bgsDzP6rKZ5bbW/robust-longterm-comparisons --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.