“On the Value of Advancing Progress” by Toby_Ord

(PDF available) I show how a standard argument for advancing progress is extremely sensitive to how humanity's story eventually ends. Whether advancing progress is ultimately good or bad depends crucially on whether it also advances the end of humanity. Because we know so little about the answer to this crucial question, the case for advancing progress is undermined. I suggest we must either overcome this objection through improving our understanding of these connections between progress and human extinction or switch our focus to advancing certain kinds of progress relative to others — changing where we are going, rather than just how soon we get there.[1] Things are getting better. While there are substantial ups and downs, long-term progress in science, technology, and values have tended to make people's lives longer, freer, and more prosperous. We could represent this as a graph of quality of life over time, giving [...] The original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 3 images which were described by AI. --- First published: July 11th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XKeQbizpDP45CYcYc/on-the-value-of-advancing-progress --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.