“Manifold markets isn’t very good” by Robin

Disclaimer I currently have an around 400-day streak on Manifold Markets (though lately I only spend a minute or two a day on it) and have no particular vendetta against it. I also use Metaculus. I’m reasonably well-ranked on both but have not been paid by either platform, ignoring a few Manifold donations. I have not attended any Manifest. I think Manifold has value as a weird form of social media, but I think it's important to be clear that this is what it is, and not a manifestation of collective EA or rationalist consciousness, or an effective attempt to improve the world in its current form. Overview of Manifold Manifold is a prediction market website where people can put virtual money (called “mana”) into bets on outcomes. There are several key features of this: 1. You’re rewarded with virtual money both for participating and for predicting [...] --- First published: June 20th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EaR9xFxspmYRkm3eo/manifold-markets-isn-t-very-good --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.