[Linkpost] “Is it 3 Years, or 3 Decades Away? Disagreements on AGI Timelines” by Vasco Grilo🔸

This is a link post. This is a linkpost for Epoch After Hours' podcast episode Is it 3 Years, or 3 Decades Away? Disagreements on AGI Timelines by Ege Erdil and Matthew Barnett, which was released on 28 March 2025. The episode is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Pocket Casts, and Overcast. Ege is the 1st author of the paper about Epoch AI's compute-centric model of AI automation, which was announced on 21 March 2025, and also discussed on the Future of Life Institute Podcast. I broadly agree with Ege on AI timelines, and like Ege's and Matthew's takes on AI risk. See AI 2027 for the case for short AI timelines. Blurb When might AI truly transform our world, and what will that transformation look like? Even within our own research team, timelines for AGI differ substantially. In this episode, two Epoch AI researchers with relatively long [...] ---Outline:(01:02) Blurb(02:48) AI timelines--- First published: April 4th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tJh4J3dLhB5AqvsK2/is-it-3-years-or-3-decades-away-disagreements-on-agi Linkpost URL:https://epoch.ai/epoch-after-hours/disagreements-on-agi-timelines --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.