“Conditional Trees: Generating Informative Forecasting Questions (FRI) -- AI Risk Case Study” by Forecasting Research Institute, Tegan, Jhrosenberg, AvitalM, Molly Hickman, Otto Kuusela, Sam Glover

This is a link post. Authors of linked report: Tegan McCaslin, Josh Rosenberg, Ezra Karger, Avital Morris, Molly Hickman, Otto Kuusela, Sam Glover, Zach Jacobs, Phil Tetlock[1] Today, the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), released “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics,” which discusses the results of a case study in using conditional trees to generate informative questions about AI risk. In this post, we provide a brief overview of the methods, findings, and directions for further research. For much more analysis and discussion, see the full report: https://forecastingresearch.org/s/AIConditionalTrees.pdf AbstractWe test a new process for generating high-value forecasting questions: asking experts to produce “conditional trees,” simplified Bayesian networks of quantifiably informative forecasting questions. We test this technique in the context of the current debate about risks from AI. We conduct structured interviews with 21 AI domain experts and 3 highly skilled generalist forecasters (“superforecasters”) to [...] ---Outline:(00:55) Abstract(02:12) Executive Summary(02:41) Methods(04:25) Results(04:28) The conditional trees method can generate forecasting questions that are more informative than existing questions on popular forecasting platforms(07:05) Questions generated through the conditional trees method emphasized different topics than those on forecasting platforms(08:05) We found weak evidence that superforecasters and experts value different types of questions(10:06) The conditional trees method still has disadvantages(11:06) Key takeaways(12:30) Key outputs(13:59) Limitations of our research(14:49) Next stepsThe original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI. --- First published: August 12th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iMmpeCmfBk9sm6aLJ/conditional-trees-generating-informative-forecasting --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.