“...but is increasing the value of futures tractable?” by Davidmanheim

The central question being discussed in the current debate is whether marginal efforts should prioritize reducing existential risk or improving the quality of futures conditional on survival. Both are important, both are neglected, though the latter admittedly more so, at least within EA. But this post examines the tractability of shaping the long-term future if humanity survives, and the uncertainty about our ability to do so effectively. I want to very briefly argue that given the complexity of long-term trajectories, the lack of empirical evidence, and the difficulty of identifying robust interventions, efforts to improve future value are significantly less tractable than reducing existential risk. We have strong reasons to think we know what the likely sources of existential risk are - as @Sean_o_h's new paper lays out very clearly. The most plausible risks are also well known, and we have at least some paths towards mitigating them [...] --- First published: March 19th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BDpTtEkp79LsZXcG6/but-is-increasing-the-value-of-futures-tractable --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.