“Analysis of key AI analogies” by Kevin Kohler

The following is an analysis of seven prominent AI analogies: aliens, the brain, climate change, electricity, the Industrial Revolution, the neocortex, & nuclear fission. You can find longer versions of these as separate blogposts on my substack. 0. Why? AI analogies have a real-world impact For better or worse, analogies play a prominent role in the public debate about the long-term trajectory and impacts of AI. Analogies play a role in designing international institutions for AI (e.g. CERN, IPCC) and in legal decisions Analogies as mental heuristics can influence policymakers in critical decisions. Changes in AI analogies can lead to worldview shifts (e.g. Hinton) Having worked with a diverse set of experts my sense is that their thinking is anchored by wildly different analogies Analogies can be misleading Matthew Barnett (“Against most, but not all, AI risk analogies”) & others have already discussed the shortcomings of [...] ---Outline:(00:22) 0. Why?(02:18) 1. Aliens (full text)(02:22) Basic idea(02:37) Selected users(03:08) Selected commonalities(04:52) Selected differences(06:28) Bonus trivia: Does worshipping aliens pay off?(07:12) 2. Brain (full text)(07:16) Basic idea(07:33) Selected users(07:45) Selected commonalities(09:29) Selected differences(11:49) 3. Climate Change (full text)(11:54) Basic idea(12:04) Selected user(12:17) Selected commonalities(13:35) Selected differences(15:06) Bonus trivia: There was a shift from “wizard” to “prophet” vision in climate around 1970(15:34) 4. Electricity (full text)(15:38) Basic idea(15:50) Selected user(16:21) Selected commonalities(17:25) Selected differences(20:12) Bonus trivia: But AI \*is\* electricity(20:40) 5. Industrial Revolution (full text)(20:45) Basic idea(21:13) Selected user(21:29) Selected commonalities(23:44) Selected differences(25:24) Bonus trivia: The humble clovers contribution to the Industrial Revolution(26:06) 6. Neocortex (full text)(26:11) Basic idea(26:23) Selected users(26:55) Selected commonalities(27:37) Selected differences(29:08) Bonus trivia: Triune Brain Theory(30:03) 7. Nuclear fission (full text)(30:08) Basic idea(30:24) Selected users(31:30) Selected commonalities(34:15) Selected differences(36:34) Bonus trivia: The impact of Szilard's silence is more complex than the narrative--- First published: June 29th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3dqjtbtJywQBsC9nA/analysis-of-key-ai-analogies --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.