“#191 – The economy and national security after AGI (Carl Shulman on the 80,000 Hours Podcast)” by 80000_Hours

We just published an interview: Carl Shulman on the economy and national security after AGI. Listen on Spotify or click through for other audio options, the transcript, and related links. Below are the episode summary and some key excerpts. Episode summary Consider just the magnitude of the hammer that is being applied to this situation: it's going from millions of scientists and engineers and entrepreneurs to billions and trillions on the compute and AI software side. It's just a very large change. You should also be surprised if such a large change doesn’t affect other macroscopic variables in the way that, say, the introduction of hominids has radically changed the biosphere, and the Industrial Revolution greatly changed human society. - Carl Shulman The human brain does what it does with a shockingly low energy supply: just 20 watts — a fraction of a cent worth of electricity per hour. [...] ---Outline:(00:27) Episode summary(05:53) Highlights(05:56) Robot nannies(09:36) Key transformations after an AI capabilities explosion(13:31) Objection: Shouldnt we be seeing economic growth rates increasing today?(17:57) Objection: Declining returns to increases in intelligence?(21:33) Objection: Could we really see rates of construction go up a hundredfold or a thousandfold?(25:09) Objection: This sounds completely whack(28:32) Income and wealth distribution--- First published: June 27th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/afz3whxDtrXfhLPFj/191-the-economy-and-national-security-after-agi-carl-shulman --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.