When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?

Researcher Katja Grace joins Dirk and Jon to discuss upcoming AI achievements. We then explore expert predictions in Katja’s research paper, When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?, to project when key advances will happen. AI researcher Katja Grace joins Dirk and Jon to talk about her work. In 2016 Katja led a research project that gathered input from hundreds of AI experts to speculate about the timeframe in which different advances would be completed. We talk about the many predictions from her paper, When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?, spanning practical applications like self-driving cars and generating pop songs to longitudinal questions of high-level machine intelligence and artificial general intelligence.   Memorable Quotes "We've recently seen a lot of progress in automating some things that are part of normal human functioning that we hadn't previously been able to do that are key to most work." "If we have quite good AI and not very good robotics, we might try to push more tasks into virtual places where you don't need to deal with the real world." "We asked when AI would be able to basically write a new Taylor Swift song as well as Taylor Swift can so that a dedicated Taylor Swift fan would not be able to tell the difference." "If you make machines that are very good at optimizing for something and don't really know what you care about, then, without any malice, they will end up destroying the things that you cared about." "I guess the question is are humans as intelligent as a thing can be?"   Mentioned in this episode Katja’s Paper Angry Birds AI Competition     Who You'll Hear Dirk Knemeyer, Social Futurist and Producer of Creative Next (@dknemeyer) Jonathan Follett, Writer, Electronic Musician, Emerging Tech Researcher and Producer of Creative Next (@jonfollett) Katja Grace, Researcher, Owner of AI Impacts (@KatjaGrace)   Join The Conversation Website & Newsletter: www.creativenext.org Twitter: @GoCreativeNext Facebook: /GoCreativeNext Instagram: @GoCreativeNext   Sponsors GoInvo, A design practice dedicated to innovation in healthcare whose clients are as varied as AstraZeneca, 3M Health Information Services, and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. www.goinvo.com Design Museum Foundation, A new kind of museum, they believe design can change the world. They’re online, nomadic, and focused on making design accessible to everyone. Their mission: bring the transformative power of design everywhere. You can learn about their exhibitions, events, magazine, and more. www.designmuseumfoundation.org BIF, As a purpose-driven firm, BIF is committed to bringing design strategy where it is needed most - health care, education, and public service to create value for our most vulnerable populations. www.bif.is