6 February 2023 - Jury out on size of recession

There is still no definitive answer to the questions about the length and depth of the recession, which the UK is probably already seeing. There is no question that the economy is slowing, but there are too many imponderables to be able to say that the country will be in recession at the end of 2023 or how bad the telltale signs of a recession will be. Unemployment remains at a historic low, and although business liquidations are beginning to rise, they are still not rising to a level which raises significant concerns. The property market is one of the more obvious areas where the continuous interest rates rises that have taken place over the last year or so are beginning to see and effect. House prices are 3.2% lower than they were last August and high street bank, Santander, believes that they will fall by 10% this year. Despite the gloom, the mortgage lenders are returning to market with a wider rate of products offering protection against higher rates. The single most important reason for the disarray that enveloped the mortgage market in 2022 was Liz Truss, who almost completely destroyed confidence with a misguided policy of cutting taxes and funding them with significantly higher borrowing. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.